ABP Live Deep Dive | Why The 16th Finance Commission Matters More Than You Think For Budget 2026

As the Union Budget for 2026 approaches, one of the most closely watched, yet least publicly discussed, influences on government finances is the 16th Finance Commission. Although its report has not yet been made public, its recommendations are expected to shape how taxes are shared between the Centre and the states for the next five years, starting 2026-27.

For states, this exercise is critical. The Finance Commission determines how much of the Centre’s tax revenue flows back to them, affecting everything from welfare spending and infrastructure investment to fiscal stability and borrowing capacity.

What Is The Finance Commission And Why Does It Matter?

The Finance Commission is a constitutional body set up periodically to recommend how financial resources should be distributed between the Union government and the states. Its core task is to lay down a formula for the devolution of central taxes, while also advising on grants-in-aid and other aspects of Centre-state fiscal relations.

Importantly, cesses and surcharges levied by the Centre do not form part of the divisible pool of taxes shared with states, a long-standing point of debate in India’s federal structure.

The 16th Finance Commission was constituted on December 31, 2023, and is chaired by former Niti Aayog Vice Chairman Arvind Panagariya. Its members include retired bureaucrat Annie George Mathew, economist Manoj Panda, SBI Group Chief Economic Advisor Soumya Kanti Ghosh and RBI Deputy Governor T Rabi Sankar. Ritvik Pandey serves as Secretary to the Commission.

The Commission submitted its report to President Droupadi Murmu on November 17, 2025, and also presented copies to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman.

What Period Does The 16th Finance Commission Cover?

As per its Terms of Reference (ToR), the 16th Finance Commission has been mandated to make recommendations for a five-year period beginning April 1, 2026, and ending March 31, 2031.

These recommendations cover:

• Distribution of net tax proceeds between the Centre and the states
• Allocation of the states’ share among individual states
• Grants-in-aid to states
• Review of financing arrangements for disaster management

Once accepted, these recommendations will directly influence state finances through the second half of the decade.

What Happened Under The Previous Finance Commission?

To understand what may lie ahead, it helps to look at the precedent set by the 15th Finance Commission.

Headed by N K Singh, the 15th Finance Commission recommended that states receive 41 per cent of the Centre’s divisible tax pool. This was applicable for the six-year period from 2020-21 to 2025-26.

Although the Commission was originally constituted to give recommendations for five years, its Terms of Reference were amended in November 2019. As a result, it submitted two reports, one for 2020-21 and a final report covering 2021-22 to 2025-26.

The 41 per cent devolution maintained the level recommended by the 14th Finance Commission, but factored in the territorial changes following the creation of the Union Territories of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh.

How Is The Devolution Formula Decided?

Finance Commissions typically use a weighted formula to determine how central taxes are distributed among states. Over the years, this has included factors such as population, area, demographic performance, income distance, forest cover and ecology, and tax and fiscal effort.

Under the 15th Finance Commission, population and area were each given a weight of 15 per cent. Demographic performance accounted for 12.5 per cent, forest cover and ecology for 10 per cent, and tax and fiscal effort for 2.5 per cent.

These criteria often spark political debate, particularly between the Centre and Opposition-ruled states.

Why States Closely Watch Finance Commission Reports

Southern states, in particular, have repeatedly objected to the use of population as a key criterion, arguing that it penalises them despite decades of success in controlling population growth. Many states have also raised concerns that rising reliance on cesses and surcharges by the Centre has reduced the size of the divisible pool.

Given these sensitivities, the formula proposed by the 16th Finance Commission will be scrutinised closely once the report is made public.

What To Watch For In Budget 2026

Historically, Union governments have largely accepted Finance Commission recommendations. If that pattern holds, the 16th Finance Commission’s formula for tax sharing from 2026-27 to 2030-31 is likely to be reflected in Budget 2026 and subsequent fiscal statements.

For states, this could determine their fiscal room for the next half-decade. For the Centre, it will shape how much flexibility it retains in managing national priorities.